Debate Calculator

Compare two futures — with one honest noise band per argument.

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Choose a predefined debate to pre-fill all dimensions, or start empty and add your own.

1

Name each future you want to compare. Add a third future if needed.

2

Raw deltas in their original units — not yet comparable.

3

Three explicit moves per argument. The probability is consumed in Step A — it does not appear again. Step C bundles all sources of uncertainty into one slider.

A: Expected Impact
Impact × Plausibility
B: × Value
= Argument Strength
C: Noise
= ±range
4
Future A Future B

Each orbiting bubble is a consequence. Click one to see how it contributes. The heavier cluster is pulling the decision.

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One noise per argument, combined in quadrature. The gap between pro and contra is compared to the total uncertainty band.

summarize
The Best Argument Wins — An Engineer's Case for Better Democracy